ANALISIS PREDIKSI KEJADIAN LUAR BIASA DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI KOTA BANJARMASIN

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a case that often affects areas in Indonesia and is seasonal. Geographical information system (GIS) is a tool that can be used to help analyze the condition of an area against disease to determine what action should be taken as an early warning. Information on the distribution of disease in an area can be mapped spatially, in the cities of Banjarmasin with different conditions, especially from the distribution of the population, the distance to road access and other components. This study aims (a) to build spatial data containing the attributes of dengue fever sufferers for Banjarmasin City; (b) distributed of epidemiological cases of dengue fever map in Banjarmasin based on population density, distance of housing to roads, rainfall, larvae free rate, number of cases, topography, land use, distance of settlements to water sources. Meanwhile, in the database modeling, it is described in a spatial analysis and categorization of high, medium and low events. This study used the spatial database information that has been built showing changes number of dengue cases. The number of cases dengue fever in Banjarmasin City at 2018-2019 has always increased every year in the East Banjarmasin area, close to Banjar Regency, decline in North Banjarmasin, the residual is dynamic and has not decreased significantly. The pattern of the occurrence dengue cases in Banjarmasin is clustered from the ANN (Average Nearest Neighbor), so that the surrounding area is vulnerable to an outbreak. The distribution of DHF sufferers based on age is dominated by the age group 6-18 years, the lowest is the 25-53 years old group with gender of the patient was dominated by male. Banjarmasin area with high vulnerability in almost all areas based on environmental variables, demographics and incidence rates as determinants of high and low prediction modeling.