Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Asean-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) Terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Jagung di Indonesia

Yudi Ferrianta, Nuhfil Hanani, Budi Setiawan, A. Wahib Muhaimin

Abstract


The purposes of this study are to analyze the impact of the ASEANChina Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement on Indonesian maize economic performance and to find alternative policies in order to achieve maize selfsufficiency. The model used is an econometric model with a system of simultaneous equations, whee the Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) was used to estimate the parameters. Forecasting of Indonesian maize economic performance and finding an alternative policy in 2010-2015 in the era of ACFTA were assessed by using ex ante simulation. The implementation of trade liberalization agreements in ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) generated negative impacts on Indonesian maize economy. There were no policy packages that can be used as instrument for self-sufficiency in maize. One of effective policies is to ban the import, but it is difficult to implement as opposed to the ACFTA agreement. If Indonesia still want to achieve maize self-sufficiency, the appropriate policy is a combination policy of increasing in the total area about 6.29% per year, rising in productivity about 3.5%, and raising maize prices for 4.47% through price subsidies.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20527/agrides.v1i4.20373

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AGRIDES: Jurnal Agribisnis Perdesaan is registered with ISSN 2088-2882 (print).

Published by Agribusiness Study Program, Department of Agricultural Socio-Economics
Faculty of Agriculture, Lambung Mangkurat University
Jl. Jend. Ahmad Yani Km. 36, Banjarbaru, Kalimantan Selatan 70714, Indonesia
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