ANALISIS CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK PORTOFOLIO SAHAM DENGAN COPULA CLAYTON

Sela Karlina; Evy Sulistianingsih; Neva Satyahadewi

doi:10.20527/epsilon.v18i2.13261

ANALISIS CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK PORTOFOLIO SAHAM DENGAN COPULA CLAYTON

Sela Karlina, Evy Sulistianingsih, Neva Satyahadewi

Abstract

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is known as a risk measurement tool to estimate losses in investing. Financial data tends not to be normally distributed so that the flexible Copula method can be used to analyze financial data without requiring the assumption of normality. This study aims to analyze the CVaR of a stock portfolio with Clayton's Copula. The study began with collecting daily stock closing price data for the period October 3, 2022 to November 3, 2023. After the data was collected, the return value of the closing stock price was calculated. Furthermore, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests were carried out on the closing stock price return data. Then, the Kendall's Tau correlation was calculated to obtain the Clayton Copula parameters. After that, the stock weights in the portfolio were calculated using the Mean Variance Efficient Portfolio (MVEP) method and new return data was generated using the Clayton Copula parameters. Furthermore, the portfolio return was calculated to obtain the VaR value of the formed portfolio. Then, it was repeated by generating data up to the VaR calculation 1000 times to obtain the average value of the portfolio VaR. Then, the same thing was done to CVaR. The results of the CVaR analysis of the stock portfolio with Copula Clayton on the two stocks, namely PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) and PT Timah Tbk (TINS), obtained losses of 3.04%, 3.56%, and 4.57% with a confidence level of 90%, 95%, and 99%. This value indicates the percentage of investment risk that may be obtained in the next one-day period. This shows that the higher the level of confidence, the greater the CVaR value will be.

Keywords

Archimedian, MVEP, Return-Saham

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20527/epsilon.v18i2.13261