PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN MODEL SVEIR

Gian Septiansyah; Muhammad Ahsar Karim; Yuni Yulida

doi:10.20527/epsilon.v16i2.6496

PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN MODEL SVEIR

Gian Septiansyah, Muhammad Ahsar Karim, Yuni Yulida

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 or also known as Covid-19 is a disease caused by a type of coronavirus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or better known as the corona virus. Covid-19 become a pandemic since 2020 and has been widely studied, one of which is in mathematical modeling. In this study, the spread of Covid-19 is modeled using the SVEIR (Susceptible, Vaccination, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) model. The purpose of this study explains the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model, determines the equilibrium point, determines the basic reproduction number, and analyzes the stability of the Covid-19 SVEIR model. The purpose of this study explains the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model, determines the equilibrium point, the basic reproduction number, and analyzes the stability of the Covid-19 SVEIR model. The result of this study is to explain the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model and obtained two equilibrium points, the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number is obtained through the Next Generation Matrix method. The results of the stability analysis at the disease-free equilibrium point were locally asymptotically stable with conditions while at the endemic equilibrium point local asymptotically stable with conditions . The natural death rate is greater than the effective contact rate. A numerical simulation is presented to show a comparison spread of Covid-19 by providing different levels of vaccine effectiveness using the Runge-Kutta Order method.

Keywords

Mathematical Modeling; Covid-19; SVEIR Model; Vaccine Effectiveness

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20527/epsilon.v16i2.6496