PERMODELAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE TERHADAP INFLASI DI PROVINSI KALIMANTAN SELATAN

Abstract

Inflation is a condition of increasing prices continuously for a certain time. One of the factors thought to influence inflation, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator that can be said to be important in determining the level of economic stability of a country. Seeing the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation, this study aims to explain how the influence and how the best model of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on inflation in South Kalimantan Province uses Spline Nonparametric Regression. The use of the Spline Nonparametric Regression method in this study is because the data used has significant fluctuations so that it is estimated that the data is not normal. In the process, the Spline Nonparamteric Regression method is used to obtain the estimated regression curve through a data fitting approach. This method is also very suitable for use with data that changes frequently, spline is a model that has statistical, visual interpretation and has the ability to be generalized to complex and complex statistical models. The result of this research is that the best model is found at one knot point and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has an effect on the inflation variable by 13.23 percent.

Keywords:  Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Spline Nonparametric Regression