CHANGE OF MAXIMUM RAIN PATTERN BASED ON RAINFALL DATA OF BANJARBARU CLIMATOLOGY STATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

According to the World Meteorological Organization that 2014 was the hottest year in which the hot weather alternated with high rainfall and floods which destroyed the people's economy. Banjarbaru, as one of the central cities of the government of South Kalimantan Province, has a topographic condition that is at an altitude of 0-500 m above sea level, causing rainfall, which is enough frequent. Banjarbaru itself is one of the cities affected by climate change in 2014. Disasters that occurred in the form of flooding at several points of residents and also crippled traffic at that time. Thus, it is important to know the pattern of maximum rainfall changes that occur. By knowing the pattern of maximum rainfall changes, the impact of the high rainfall that can occur will be minimized and can even be anticipated as early as possible.            Data processing is performed with maximum daily rainfall data of 30 years and divided into a database before and after climate change that is 25 years old data and 5 years of new data. Each database calculates the planned rainfall for the return period of 2-1000 years with the distribution obtained from the analyzed database. Next, analyze the deviation of the two data. The purpose of analyzing the deviation of old data and new data is to determine changes in the planned rainfall from both data. Deviation analysis uses the Peak-Weight Root Mean Square Error function.            The conclusion of the analysis is that based on the Statistical Parameters test, the Chi-Square test, and the Smirnov-Kolmogorov test on the old database using the Gumbel distribution and the new data using the Pearson Log Type III distribution for the calculation of the planned rain. Based on the analysis of the rain plan to get new data 5 years has the results of the rain plan is greater than the old data of 25 years and the analysis of the deviation to get the results of the new data 5 years has a greater value of deviation each time when revisiting the old data of 25 years. So it can be suggested that rainfall data with the same characteristics, can use 5 years of new data for the analysis of water building planning.