ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN INDONESIA USING DYNAMIC PANEL DATA THROUGH THE ARELLANO-BOND GENERALIZED METHOD OF MOMENTS APPROACH

Devi Mulya Astuti, Tantri Crystiana, Febryana Dilla Setyaningrum, Galuh Salwa Salsabila, M. Al Haris, Alwan Fadlurohman

Abstract


Economic growth is a primary indicator of regional development performance, as reflected by Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The dynamic nature of economic variables requires an analytical approach capable of capturing intertemporal relationships. This study examines changes in GRDP across 34 provinces in Indonesia during the period 2016-2023 using annual dynamic panel data estimated with the Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The explanatory variables include investment, the open unemployment rate (TPT), the Human Development Index (HDI), population size, and the lagged dependent variable. Model specification is evaluated using the Sargan test and the Arellano-Bond serial correlation test. The results indicate that the estimated model satisfies the required diagnostic tests, suggesting that the estimator is appropriate for the analysis. Furthermore, the Wald test indicates that the regressors are jointly significant. Partial estimation results show that lagged GRDP, investment, the open unemployment rate (TPT), and the Human Development Index (HDI) significantly affect changes in GRDP, whereas population size does not have a statistically significant effect. Lagged GRDP and investment exert positive effects on changes in GRDP, while the open unemployment rate and the Human Development Index have significant negative effects.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20527/ragam.v5i2.19859

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RAGAM: Journal of Statistics and Its Application 

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RAGAM: Journal of Statistics and Its Application is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.